LPG Market Assessment in KSA

Table of Content:

The objective of this phase is to understand the market dynamics of LPG consumption in KSA across regions and application segments – residential, commercial and industrial

KSA Demographic & LPG Policy Overview

• Population growth – historical and forecast (up to 2030)
• Population segmentation – regions, household sizes, income levels
• Government recent development and policies that impact LPG demand in KSA

KSA Market Demand Assessment

• LPG consumption (volume) over the historical (2018-2023) and forecast period (2024-203)
• Market segmentation (volume based) for 2020-2023 based on:
  • Regions: Western, eastern and central regions in KSA
  • End-use segments: Residential, commercial and industrial
• Key growth drivers e.g.,
  • Rising demand for LPG in Domestic Power Generation and the Automobile Sector
  • Increasing Emphasis on Utilization of Bio LPG
  • Increasing environmental concerns
• Typical storage, distribution channels of LPG in the country – Direct / Retail / Other Channels

KSA End-Use Sector Assessment (By Application Areas)

• Define key segments and applications: Residential, commercial and industrial
  • Residential: Domestic cooking / heating
  • Commercial: Usage in HORECA, other medium scale usage as fuel for cooking / heating
  • Industrial: Used as fuel, refrigerant across major industries such as transport, refinery, chemical, pharmaceutical, plastic, agricultural industries
• Segment based application preferences and trends (this section would be carried out for each of the three segments – Residential, commercial and industrial)
  • Typical usage (volume per day / volume per household) metric
  • Typical order frequency
  • Type of cylinders / storage usage: Steel / fiber / tankers / Others
  • Cylinder capacities typically sourced: 5kg / 11-12.6kg / 13-14.2kg / 15-16.5kg/ 19-29.5kg / More Than 29.5Kg
  • Driver of choice for LPG over other fuels for key application areas- current preference vis-à-vis future preference POV
  • Key challenges / risks observed for sustained demand till 2030

KSA Regional LPG Consumption Overview

• Define key regional areas across Western region (Jeddah, Madina, Yanbu, Jazan), Eastern region (Ahsa, Dammam, Jubail), Central region (Hail, Riyadh)
• Regional preference, consumption trends –
  • Overview of residential, industrial and industrial demand: LPG consumption share (volume terms in 2023 vs 2030F)
  • Key mid-large scale residential, commercial and industrial projects – planned that impact demand up to 2030)
  • Key bottling, storage, distribution, logistics players in the region

Summary / Recommendation

• Sector attractiveness: Size, growth and demand sustainability
• Key demand drivers, risks across application segments